⚠ Educational research only. This is one person's personal trading system, shared freely. Nothing here is financial advice — do your own research and never trade money you can't afford to lose.

Fair questions

Is this financial advice?

No. This is my personal research hobby, documented publicly. I'm not a financial advisor, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and I don't know your situation. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

Why would you give this away?

Because it costs me nothing to share, and an edge that's public is still an edge — the hard part isn't knowing the rules, it's following them with discipline on a Monday morning. I keep using the system either way. If it works out for you, the coffee link on the home page is a nice way to say so — it just covers data and hosting.

How fresh is the data?

Honestly: as fresh as a free data source allows, and I'm trying my best. The database refreshes hourly from Yahoo's delayed feed and the scanner reruns automatically after each refresh. There is no real-time guarantee — if the upstream feed hiccups, the scanner shows the last completed hour it has. That's acceptable by design: every system here trades on completed hourly closes with a 20-hour clock, so a 5-minute lag changes nothing. If a signal can't survive a 5-minute delay, it wasn't a signal.

Why hourly bars and not daily?

Because daily bars made the signals arrive days after the turn. On hourly data the same wave structure resolves within hours — you see wave 4 end and wave 5 form in real time, and the 20-hour clock keeps you out of multi-day exposure. Everything here is hourly; nothing is aggregated to daily.

Which system should I actually trade?

If you pick one: System 2 with the Q≥3 gate — it has the most out-of-sample evidence (79.5% win, PF 7.9 on 312 unseen trades), and its buy side (failed down-5th capitulations) graded even higher. System 3 is a rare bonus — take the ★ double-bottom buys, skip the sells. The continuation system is a validated edge but fires constantly — use it as a playbook on names from the Wave-4-fresh tab, not as a filter. System 1 is a watch list, not a system.

System 1 and System 4 both fire at the end of wave 4 — what's the difference?

Same structure, different trades. System 1 is a plan placed during the dip: a limit order at the 38% retrace of wave 3, stop at the 62% level, target the full wave-5 objective (one wave-1 length). It's an early heads-up with a big reward if the dip actually comes to you — but the limit may never get touched, and it's not backtested (an honest test of a mid-pullback fill needs tick data I don't have). System 4 is a trade taken after the dip ends: wave 4 finished within the last 7 hours, the fast DMA(5,2) crosses in wave 5's direction, you enter at market on that cross, stop at the wave-4 end, and take a small fixed target of 1.5×ATR. You always get filled — later and at a worse price — but the entry is confirmed, and it's the most heavily validated system here: 18,312 out-of-sample trades, 91.8% winners, profit factor 10.8, average hold under 7 hours. In short: S1 prepares you, S4 executes. And when the resulting wave 5 finally stalls, that's System 2's job to fade.

What's an "Elliott Wave" anyway?

A 1930s observation that trends tend to advance in five pushes and retrace in three, and that the fifth push usually shows weakening momentum. You don't need to believe in the theory — the scanner just encodes "new extreme + weaker momentum + trigger cross" and the statistics do the talking.

How many signals per week will I actually see?

Roughly: 5–10 System 2 Q≥3 setups per week market-wide (most weeks fewer), a System 3 a few times a year, and a constantly-turning Wave-4-fresh watch list. Few, defined, boring trades — that's the design.

What are the real odds of making money?

Honestly: unknown. Backtests say the patterns have had a strong statistical edge across multiple market regimes. Your results depend on execution, costs, position sizing and discipline. Never risk money you can't afford to lose, and paper-trade the system first — at least a month of signals before a dollar.